Wayne Brown, analyst at Canaccord Genuity, said that recent trading at the group had been poor - with like-for-like sales down by 4% in the all weeks to 16 March.
And he dismissed the argument that Greggs had been hit by the downturn on the high street.
Brown, who rates the stock as a hold and has target share price of 485p, said: "Whilst the adverse weather has impacted the performance in January, underlying LFL sales in February has improved to a declineof 2%. However recent BRC data has been positive despite the adverse weather highlighting Greggs relative underperformance. The number of shoppers on the high street rose +2.7% in Feb 2013 vs Feb 2012."
However, the analyst said it agreed with the new 2013 strategy for the bakery company that will see investment in its core estate and a lower rate of new openings.
He added: "We expect this to have a negative impact on LFL sales in the short term due to increased shop closure but should provide a stronger platform for growth in the future."