Carl, while I would agree with you about the impact in the '90s on High Street bakers, the statistics of the last ten years tell a different story.
Recent industry reports show a massive surge in independent and small-scale bakery openings over the last decade.
Total Small Business Growth: The number of small businesses manufacturing bread, fresh pastry, and cakes grew from 1,874 in 2008 to 2,720 in 2021.
Recent Openings: As of 2022, roughly 33% of all small bakeries in the UK were less than five years old, with 17% (nearly 1 in 5) having been founded since the start of 2020.
Rapid Acceleration (2017–2022): Research by Tyl by NatWest found a 267% rise in new bakery shop openings nationwide between 2017 and 2022, primarily driven by independent SMEs.
Five-Year Independent Growth: Insurance data from Simply Business indicates that the number of independent bakers has grown by 34% in just the last five years (2020–2025).
But this new wave of artisan bakeries are not copying the fallen generation of the 80s and 90s by competing with the supermarkets on price. They are putting provenance, craft and quality front and centre, and the consumers are realising that industrially produced loaves with a lack of flavour, and digestibility covered up with a blanket of marketing and fluff do not compete.
I sent a letter to my then MP Francis Maude back in the 1990s, stating that the lost leader system of selling cheap bread and rolls by the likes of Tesco and other major supermarkets, would lead to wholesale closures of high St craft bakers leading to many job losses, and asked him to look into the then situation.
I received a reply, which basically said my fears were groundless and their was no evidence to suggest that thus would be the case.
Roll on, no pun intended, roll on 30+ years and and how many bakers do you see on the high St, 0, and now they have gotten rid of the competition, they have increased there price on bread and rolls, and now getting rid of their instore bakeries, to replace them with tanning salons for bread, or bake offs of premade product leading to inferior choice for their customers, but they say its all in the name of more and better choice for their customers, what a load of rubbish, but hey ho, that's where we are now at.
RIP all those lovely independent craft bakeries that I learnt my trade in many years ago.
Thank you, Peter.
Most heartening to hear, but where I now live in the Midlands, the Coventry area, there is little sign of any growth of independent artisan bakers, we have a multitude of Greg's shops, and I have seen a lot of so called artisan bakeries that have opened in various small shops, run by enthusiastic home bakers, which unfortunately haven't stood the test of time, for whatever reason.
I think my main point was, and still is, that the loss leader model that was allowed to continue without any intervention from government, led to the wholesale loss of our independent bakery trade, along with the skills that many of our great bakers had, but then it takes a strong government to tell the population that they should pay more for their daily bread, as apposed to the lowest possible price they can get it for, in fact they have usually gone the other way by controlling the maximum price bread could be sold at as happebed in the 70s
I sincerely hope that there is a resurgence of craft bakeries, Peter, I for one would love to still have the energy to open one, run on the lines of the old Don Miller shops of the 80s, great concept! And although using the ADP system, some good bread and rolls could be turned out by a baker with the right expiereance!
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