Cash-strapped consumers are opting to visit coffee shops instead of restaurants, according to a new study of spending habits.
Spending in cafés and coffee shops grew by 5% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, analysis by data specialist CACI has revealed, while spending at restaurants has fallen 3%.
Although well-established brands such as Starbucks (+6%) and Costa (+4%) recorded strong growth, fast-growing coffee shop disruptors such as Grind (+17%) and Blank Street (+13%) have outperformed the overall market.
British Baker’s annual Bakery Market Report highlighted some of the up-and-coming brands set to have a larger impact on the UK market, including cinnamon roll specialist Cinnamood, doughnut specialist Doughnotts, sandwich chain Jersey Mike’s Subs, craft bakery Public and London-based Sourdough Sophia, which has ambitions for 20 sites across the capital.
Echoing the CACI findings, the BMR found spend in bakery outlets increased from an average of £8.97 per visit in 2024 to £9.92 in 2025.
Consumers are not abandoning eating out altogether but are becoming more selective about where they spend their money, said CACI, which found food-to-go outlets recorded a 2% increase in spend.
CACI’s demographic analysis also points towards affluence driving the behaviour, with the strongest increases in spend per visit at coffee shops coming from the least affluent consumer groups.
“A nationwide, affordability-driven shift in consumer behaviour is reshaping where people choose to eat and drink out,” said CACI senior consultant Martha Dobbs.
“Consumers are increasingly opting for cafés and more premium quick-service experiences over full-service restaurants, and the less affluent consumers are leading the charge, suggesting many are reallocating budgets rather than cutting back on eating out altogether.”
Dobbs added that it wasn’t all doom and gloom for restaurants, however.
“These consumer spending patterns show clear preferences, which restaurants must consider if they want to demonstrate value beyond a traditional offering,” she said. ”A quick-service style Pizza Express concept, which opened in Brixton this spring, is an example of an adaptation which can be made by established restaurant operators to capitalise on changing consumer habits.”
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