Residents of UK cities including Portsmouth and Birmingham have a limited choice of local independent bakeries, according to new research.
Small business insurance provider Hiscox used OpenStreetMap data to compare the number of bakeries in a city against its population size to help identify supply gaps. Chains such as Greggs, Gail’s, Cooplands, and Wenzel’s were excluded from the map database, which uses aerial imagery, GPS devices, and field mapping to keep its data accurate and up to date.
Hiscox attributed supply gap scores based on the inverse of the bakery/population ratios (ie. the less bakeries per 100,000 people, the higher the score), which it tabulated as follows:
A supply gap on its own does not guarantee success, noted Hiscox. Independent bakery business owners still need to consider practical factors such as rent, staffing, footfall, and logistics.
They will also need to account for competition from larger chains and supermarkets, and whether the business can maintain quality and consistency as it grows – in some cases, it may also be sensible to seek relevant professional advice, added Hiscox.
Other data analysis included on the locations where consumer interest in bakeries appears to be strongest. Hiscox created a demand score relating to a city’s average monthly searches for bakery-related terms, adjusting for population. It found Edinburgh, Brighton, and Manchester topped the list, not only indicating well-established independent bakery scenes but also sustained interest from consumers.
Brighton citizens are best served in their artisanal bakery demands as the south coast destination also topped the list of UK cities with the most independent bakeries already in operation. Brighton has 22 bakeries per 100,000 residents, comfortably above Newcastle-upon-Tyne and Edinburgh on 16, Manchester and Sheffield on 12, and Bristol on 10. London, however, wasn’t even in the top 15.
Hiscox noted how Britain’s appetite for artisan bread, neighbourhood bakeries, and high-quality baked goods shows little sign of slowing. It said bakery businesses are thriving across the UK, with UK Google searches for ‘bakery near me’ rising 50% year-on-year to an average of 368,000 per month.
Nick Thornhill, direct and partnerships director at Hiscox UK, highlighted how periods of growth can be exciting for small food businesses, but they can also put real pressure on day-to-day operations. “For bakery owners, success often brings new challenges around staffing, equipment, stock, supply chains, and cash flow – all of which need careful planning if growth is going to be sustainable,” he said.
‘The businesses that tend to navigate growth best are the ones that look beyond demand alone and think about resilience, too. That means understanding where the risks are that could impact operations, cashflow or reputation, and making sure the right protections are in place as the business evolves,” Thornhill added.
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