The weather during the critical "bloom" in California will determine the short- to medium-term direction on pricing. Last year’s crop was the largest on record, so it is likely to be smaller this year.


Huge demand from China, a short crop in India and only an average crop in Eastern Europe and the US as well as the huge increase in sales from all three of inshell has completely changed the face of walnut availability as well as pricing.


Prices seem to have settled into a range unrecognisably higher than the historical ’norm’.


There have been disappointments on the supply side from Brazil, issues with West African seed crops, and a shorter crop reported from India. Although the Vietnamese crop may be OK, we can expect to see prices remaining firm up to May/June.


Unless there is an unprecendented drop in global demand this year, prices will most likely remain firm up to the point of the next harvests in the US and Mexico at the end of 2011.

Brazil nuts:

Short supply and increasing demand for what is a relatively well-priced nut, mean the normally predictable forward decline from a very high current crop price range, may not materialise, this year.


Exports from Turkey since the start of the new season are around 40,000mts ahead of last year. Prices are expected to remain firm.

l Based on information provided by RM Curtis