How this will impact bakery shoppers remains to be seen as some will be tightening their belts while others seek happiness from life’s simple pleasures (such as biscuits, cakes and doughnuts).

“Today’s marketplace is evolving and transforming at a record pace,” explains Kevin Hughes, country manager UK & Ireland, La Lorraine Bakery Group. “With this in mind, it is important that bakers and in-store bakeries continue to innovate and explore the key trends that are shaping the sector.”

Health, in all its guises, is having a major influence on the scene but perhaps not in the way expected. Bakery manufacturers are looking even more closely at their products thanks to the HFSS regulations. Meanwhile, health-conscious consumers still embrace bakery thanks to the presence of wholegrains and other wholesome ingredients, while others see it as a way of improving their mood.

“HFSS might feel at times like a restriction on our liberty, but it’s having a positive impact by making us think about fat, sugar, and salt’s impact on our health,” says British Bakels marketing manager, Michael Schofield. “But in times like these, another old saying also rings true – a little of what you fancy does you good. When life is difficult like it is now, we all need cheering up with affordable treats like bakery items.”

As such affordable indulgence is another of the trends highlighted by industry experts as likely to play out in bakery in 2023 alongside tradition with a twist and in-store experiences.

Sustainability also remains high on the agenda but, like health, what it means to consumers are businesses is evolving.

Here’s a sneak peek at some of the top bakery trends 2023:

Tradition with a twist

Consumers love to look back at days gone by with rose-tinted glasses, which is why nostalgia has dominated the bakery scene for the past few years. But things are changing.

“While nostalgia has been a key trend in the past year, today’s consumers, especially younger generations, are approaching tradition with a twist,” explains Jacqui Passmore, marketing manager UK and Ireland at Dawn Foods. “To win them over, bakers will need to combine old and new and give a new twist to time-honoured favourites.”

This includes exploring what Passmore describes as “fresh and disruptive” ingredients as well as enhancing nostalgic memories.

“In the current climate, this is more likely to be a twist or a small change on a classic that they know rather than something totally new or weird and wacky that they don’t understand and may then be reluctant to buy,” notes Julie Telfer, NPD manager at Silvery Tweed Cereals.

This fulfils consumers’ need for new food experiences without taking them too far out of their comfort zone. Think mocha or caramel latte instead of coffee, miso caramel instead of salted caramel and exploring the world of citrus beyond lemon and lime.

It’s a tactic heavily utilised for seasonal ranges with examples including a Peach Bellini Trifle from Tesco and Parmesan & Cracked Black Pepper Panettone from Waitrose being rolled out for Christmas, while Sainsbury’s unveiled Orange, Sultana & Blossom Honey Scones and an Eton Mess Profiterole Stack for spring.

Affordable indulgence

With the cost-of-living rising, consumers are looking even more carefully at what they spend their money on, with luxuries facing the chopping block. The good news for bakery businesses is that their treats are relatively affordable, with many predicting they’ll thrive in the current climate.

“We really think bakers can come out swinging on this one if they play their cards right,” believes Adam Cohen, marketing manager at flavour firm I.T.S. “When times are tough, people cut big-ticket items… Bakery is a small affordable luxury that consumers can still enjoy.”

Think a bag of doughnuts from the local supermarket, or a cup of coffee and croissant at the craft bakery down the high street.

“Much like the alcohol market, bakery can play on the affordable luxury card and actually grow market share by tapping into the need for cheap treats,” Cohen adds.

John Want, sales, marketing and R&D director at Rich’s, believes some of this growth could be achieved in grocery as consumers look to replicate their out-of-home experiences at home instead.

“Bakery is well placed to fit into these deals, whether it’s pastries to help recreate a coffee shop brunch at home or desserts to finish off a meal,” he explains.

Own-label products could also grow their share, according to Philippa Knight, marketing director at Puratos UK. However, some consumers may reduce the amount of baked goods they purchase altogether as Knight highlights the recent Puratos Consumer Barometer research, which found that 30% of respondents said they were considering cutting back on luxury, indulgent products, such as cakes, patisserie and sweet baked goods, to try and save money.

Experience matters

As delivery apps prevail, consumers are looking for something truly special when they venture away from the comfort of their sofas.

Greggs is hoping a sausage roll swing, interactive games and doughnut-shaped booths will tick this box as it opens its second Tasty by Greggs café in collaboration with Primark. Asda, meanwhile, sought to hype up its new bread range by taking over a London restaurant where it served a 13-course tasting menu based around bread, and Tesco lured bakery fans in with a hot cross bun café.

Delectable products play a huge part in getting people through the door and, as would be expected, social media is a key tool for their promotion.

“There’s a lot of opportunities to get customers into your store and to buy your product,” Sara Browner, market research & insights manager for Europe & AMEAP at Dawn Foods, explained at a recent British Society of Baking event. “We found from our survey that half of UK consumers said social media can influence their likelihood of purchasing sweet baked goods.”

Browner highlighted the Pain au Chocolat Suprême – a cream filled, chocolate-topped croissant from New York’s Lafayette Grand Café & Bakery – as a baked good that had gone viral as users shared videos of themselves enjoying the treat.

“The key element for developing that type of product was to make it go viral,” she adds. “The queues were out the door and, when interviewed, people said they saw it online, wanted to be there and to share it to their audience.”

Consumers want extravagant toppings and bakers should tap into trends seen online, adds Cristiana Ballarini, CSM Ingredients marketing director for pastry mixes. “Consumers are looking to be wowed,” she adds, so use “exaggerated terms to describe products such as ‘extra loaded’”.