Sweet bakery manufacturers struggling with sky-high chocolate prices should consider switching to compound chocolate for applications like muffins or cookies.
This was the advice given by Mark Tilling, academy chef for chocolate supplier Barry Callebaut, during a presentation to baking industry professionals and students at the recent Bakers Gathering hosted by University College Birmingham.
Compound chocolate is a substitute made with cocoa, vegetable fats, and sweeteners that is often used in baking and confectionery because it’s cheaper and easier to use than real chocolate.
Cocoa butter is the most prized ingredient from the cocoa bean extraction process as it is also in high demand from the cosmetics industry for skin products, while cocoa powder is less expensive. For this reason, Tilling also suggested increasing the percentage of cocoa powder in bakes, as it enhances the chocolate flavour.
The chef highlighted that there are numerous compounds available on the market offering cost-effective alternatives to chocolate, including bake-stable varieties. “These often use alternative fats like shea butter, illipe butter, coconut oil, and palm oil,” Tilling told British Baker.
He noted, though, that despite functioning similarly to chocolate in baking, the melting and cooling properties of the compounds may differ when used as toppings or for dipping.
The price is not right
It would have been fair to assume that the price of cocoa had peaked last Easter when it hit a historic high of £10k per tonne. hopes it would slowly but surely come back down to pre-2023 levels of around £2k one day soon. By October, the price had roughly halved but began shooting back up to almost £9,500 per tonne in December.
The usual factors are to blame for the soaring premium – extreme weather and crop disease. These have resulted in yet more poor harvests in Ivory Coast and Ghana, which currently produce 60% of the world’s cocoa. With growing demand for chocolate globally, including in new regions and markets (more on that later), it appears that the price of chocolate is unlikely to ever fully recover.
“We reckon it’s going to probably stabilise around about £5k or £6k per tonne, but that could take about two years to three years before it’s properly stable,” asserted Tilling.
The chef accepts that if things keep continuing like they are, real chocolate will join the likes of saffron and truffles as a luxury food ingredient. However, he reveals work also continues in creating new compound chocolate for the baking industry.
“We’re seeing promising developments in alternative ingredients for chocolate, such as sunflower, rapeseed, and carob. These options have the potential to be more cost-effective, sustainable, and environmentally friendly,” adds Tilling.
Trending up
Barry Callebaut recently published its ‘Top Chocolate Trends in 2025 & Beyond’ report, which provided AI-driven insights based on results from surveys on 11,700 consumers in 29 countries worldwide, as well as independent studies from its partners.
The research found that 65% of adults said they had purchased chocolate confectionery in the past year and around a third were consuming it weekly. Global sales hit a whopping US$134bn (£108bn) in 2024, with the market expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.2% over the next five years.
Volume growth, meanwhile, is predicted to be 1.7%. The largest markets by volume will be the US and Russia, and Pakistan and Nigeria the fastest growing along with the regions of Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East. Meanwhile, Switzerland’s everlasting love of chocolate will see it have the highest per capita consumption as well as Germany and Estonia.
The report identified three types of indulgence as consumer trends for chocolate: intense, mindful, and healthy.
Intense indulgence relates to multi-sensory experiences that bring delight and spark joy, especially during seasonal celebrations. These include preferences for chocolate products with multiple flavours, colours, and textures. Limited edition and exclusive new offerings can also help attract consumers by creating a sense of urgency, and this can be incorporated with nostalgic childhood recipes to provide comfort in familiarity.
Mindful indulgence, meanwhile, is driven by consumer desire to do good for the planet, for others, and themselves – sustainability can be equally important as taste according to the research. Demand for plant-based ranges is on the increase, as is demand for clean label, ethical, and traceable claims and plastic reduction in packaging.
Lastly, chocolate may long have been heralded for its benefits to mental health but consumers are pursuing indulgences that are good for the body too. They’re checking whether vitamins, superfoods or other functional ingredients have been added, without compromising on taste but helping support immunity and gut health.
“Indulgence is no longer confined to single categories – trends are increasingly interconnected, responding to a wide range of consumer desires,” comments the report. “Today’s consumers seek more than just a tasty treat; they seek indulgences that align with their values, support their lifestyles, and offer a deeper sense of purpose.”
The full report can be downloaded for free here.
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