Improved weather last autumn will result in a greater wheat area for the UK’s upcoming harvest, according to latest industry data.
Last year’s wheat harvest was one of the worst on record due to extreme rainfall over the autumn and winter seasons of 2023, with bakers becoming dependent on breadmaking wheat imports.
Newly released Planting and Variety Survey results from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) estimated the 2025 harvest will have a UK wheat area at 1,623,000 hectares, up 6% on last year’s area.
This year’s figure is noted to be slightly more than growers had planned in the most recent AHDB’s Early Bird Survey, which takes place each autumn to assess national cropping intentions. However, it is still a little below the five-year average (2020 to 2024) of 1,648 Kha, highlighted AHDB cereals and oilseeds analyst Gabriel Odiase.
Improved planting conditions are expected to see most parts of the UK rebound in wheat area, particularly in Northern Ireland (up 37% to 11 Kha) and Scotland (+11% to 109 Kha). Wet weather has again hampered planting in England’s South West and South East, which are estimated to fall by 6% and 1%, respectively.
While the wheat area is increasing, there’s been a decrease in the planting of breadmaking suitable wheat varieties, which are categorised as Group 1 and Group 2 by trade association UK Flour Millers. Group 1 varieties now account for 19% of the total wheat area in Great Britain, down from 24% in 2024, and Group 2 varieties have dropped from 19% to 17%.
“The reduction in wheat area suitable for bread-making suggests potentially tighter production in 2025,” commented AHDB’s Odiase. “A notable increase in final yields and/or quality compared to 2024 could potentially compensate. However, given the poor condition of the crop at the end of May, there is uncertainty over both final yields and quality.”
In contrast, the area planted with Group 3 wheat – a generally softer grain that can be used in bakery products like biscuits and cakes – has jumped from 2% to 7%. This may reflect the availability of a new, higher-yielding option, said Odiase, referring to either Bamford (from Elsoms) or Almara (from Senova) wheat varieties.
Both hard and soft types of Group 4 varieties, which include feed wheat and some specialist flours, now represent 53% of the total wheat area, its highest proportion since 2016.
Other key findings from the AHDB survey included that the UK oat area was estimated at 207 Kha for the 2025 harvest, up 13% on the year. Barley is to be down 6% to 1,101 Kha, while oilseed rape area is to plummet by 19% to 236 Kha.
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