Despite widespread press coverage about rocketing wheat prices, day-to-day pricing has been much more volatile, says Savage, who is not surprised by the Homegrown Cereals Authority’s latest statistics.
The figures show how the delivered commodity prices of UK bread wheat, Canadian hard wheat and US Hard Red Winter have actually come down since the last deals were made. And US Hard Red prices are set to decrease further, as expected yields are higher than predicted.
"The markets are more volatile than they have ever been," says Savage. "My wheat-buying colleagues say the best approach is buying it little and often."
Come harvest time, prices are likely to level out at between £180 and £270 a tonne, he says. "It’s that sort of band which is pretty dependent on the weather."
This year’s harvest is likely to be of a fairly high quality as, so far, the rainfall has been "fairly decent", but what happens globally is yet to be seen.
Underlying trends in the wheat futures market also show decreases, with the price of wheat for May delivery dropping by 7.5%, according to LIFFE’s exchange.