According to Key Note’s latest Bread & Bakery Products report, household expenditure on bread is expected to see a steady rise from 2009 to 2013.

In 2008, consumer expenditure grew by 6.2%, to £3.8bn, and with the population expected to hit 63 million by 2012, by definition more people will be buying bread.

Currently, 99% of the population rate it as a staple item in their shopping basket and Key Note expects total household expenditure on bread and bakery products to rise by 5% this year. Thereafter, it expects the amount to rise at a slower rate, with total expenditure hitting the £4.59bn mark in 2013 - a 2.9% increase that year.

Looking to future trends, Key Note predicts the potential impact of the Food Standards Agency’s proposed salt reduction targets. "Plant bakers are likely to be faced with the need to invest in new machinery to cope with the stickier doughs that will result from the salt reduction," reads the report.

In terms of other issues the industry may face, in addition to the rising skills gap, the weak pound is likely to result in more Eastern European bakers returning home. "The situation is likely to get worse in 2011, when Germany relaxes its immigration laws and is expected to attract more Polish workers."

The Key Note report, published in March this year, covers all breads and bakery products, such as rolls, and scones, but does not include cakes and pastries.

l Key Note is offering readers of British Baker the chance to purchase the report, normally priced at £460, at a special discount price of £368 - 20% off. Call Key Note on 020 8481 8750, or email, quoting British Baker Offer.


=== Forecast: UK household expenditure on bread and bakery products at current prices (£m), 2009-2013 ===

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Expenditure (£m) 3,991 4,162 4,329 4,459 4,588

% change year-on-year 5.0 4.3 4.0 3.0 2.9

Source: Key Note