Trading at Greggs has improved with the weather this year, with product innovation aiding recovery from a recent slowdown in sales growth.
In a trading update published this morning (20 May) for the 20 weeks to 17 May 2025, the bakery chain revealed total sales had risen by 7.4% to £784m, up from £730m in the same period last year.
Like-for-like (LFL) sales growth at company managed shops had dropped to just 1.7% in the frost-bitten first nine weeks of 2025, but this had warmed over the following 11 weeks to end up at 2.9% for the period.
Greggs noted how NPD was playing its part, with a boosted hot food offering including a range of chicken burgers, wraps, and fish finger sandwiches complemented by its newly launched Mac and Cheese, which it claimed had gone viral on TikTok. Now available in over 300 shops nationwide, the items are proving popular with customers looking for a more substantial and personalised meal, it added.
The company further extended its made-to-order range in recent weeks with some Korean chicken sandwiches and wraps, while also introducing a new Feta, Red Pepper and Spinach Bake to its savoury range.
Greggs has opened 66 new shops since the start of the year including 15 with franchise partners, four drive-thrus, and an inaugural site in Northern Ireland at Craigavon. In that time, it closed 46 shops – 21 for relocations – giving it a current estate of 2,638 sites (2,077 company-managed shops and 561 franchised units), as of 17 May.
The retail brand said that shop closures are “first-half weighted in 2025”, with a strong pipeline leaving it confident of achieving its target of between 140 and 150 net openings this year. Supporting this expansion is a new frozen product manufacturing and logistics facility in Derby and a National Distribution Centre in Kettering – construction is said to be continuing at pace, with the sites expected to be operational in 2026 and 2027, respectively.
Greggs highlighted that the improved LFL sales performance had been delivered in what remains a challenging market context, and during a period that compares with its strongest performance in 2024. “Our investment programme is on track and there has been no change to the outlook for cost inflation, which we expect to be around 6% on a LFL basis,” it said. “Our plans for managing the inflationary headwinds are progressing well and, whilst early in the financial year, the Board’s expectations for the full year outcome remain unchanged.”
Shifts away from thefts
To help combat a recent spate of shoplifting, Greggs has begun trialling a new security measure that sees it move all food and drink items from its self-serve chillers to behind the counter. The initiative has been introduced at just a few selected sites in London, including Whitechapel, on a trial basis.
“This is one of a number of initiatives we are trialling across a handful of shops which are exposed to higher levels of anti-social behaviour,” said a company statement. “Customers can expect to see our full range of great value and tasty Greggs favourites available from behind the counter. The safety of our colleagues and customers remains our number one priority.”
The company had previously trialled use of body cameras to help protect staff members last year at some of its busiest stores in the capital including London Bridge, which stays open till 1am.
Analyst comments
Reacting to Greggs’ latest trading update, Robinhood UK lead analyst Dan Lane said: “Like-for-like sales growth looks much better compared to the first nine weeks of 2025 and even pips Q4 2024 - the year that delivered record total sales. With inflation expectations accounted for, management can crack on and focus on turning Greggs from your early pastry fix to a genuine grab-and-go dinner option.
“The evolution from bakery to fully fledged food-to-go offering was stellar but keeping that pace of growth alive is much harder. Expanding the store count, extending the menu and opening into the evenings look to be core tenets of this strategy but that’s all a big change from the lunchtime steak bake blueprint that made the stock such a market darling. The difficult second album has a new sound and the old fans will take some convincing yet.”
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