Premium meal deals, on-trend flavours, and healthier items are among the top ways bakers can capitalise on the UK’s food-to-go opportunity, new research has identified.
In its report entitled ‘It’s all go for food-to-go’, the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) analysed various market data to find what was driving food-to-go performance.
“According to IGD, the UK food-to-go market is anticipated to see positive market growth over the next few years and by 2028 is expected to increase in value by almost 40% on 2019 levels,” commented AHDB retail and consumer insight analyst Charlotte Forkes-Rees.
This tracks the continued growth of the out-of-home market, which welcomed more than £48.2bn in spending over the 52 weeks to 9 June 2024 (Kantar Out-of-home), an increase of 14% year-on-year. Whilst inflation largely accounted for value growth in the past few years, volume growth had returned in 2024 – volumes rose by more than 9% during the same period – and was predicted to continue an upwards trajectory.
The AHDB report noted that almost half of all food-to-go meal occasions happen as part of a daily routine, such as going to work or after exercising. However, IGD research also highlighted that the convenience of food-to-go had become increasingly relevant to consumers with an increase in spontaneous purchases. Additionally, those who commute just one or two days a week were found to spend up to 18% more per trip than other commuter groups (Kantar Out-of-home, 52w/e 24 December 2023).
Lunch understandably remained a key meal with 71% of food-to-go customers making a midday purchase in Q1 2024, up from 68% in Q1 2023 as per IGD data. “Whether featuring a classic sandwich, or something a little different, such as a slice of pizza or burger, meal deals are big deal when it comes to lunchtime in foodservice,” remarked Forkes-Rees.
“Value plays an important role in this, particularly as almost three-quarters of consumers say they like to look for offers and deals when purchasing food-to-go,” she added, referring to IGD 2024 data. Earlier this year, Poundland launched a £3 meal deal while Co-op added in-store bakery items to extend its proposition beyondf lunchtime.
Financial pressure has been easing, though, with the AHDB analyst noting a rise in quick-service restaurants joining the lunch time food-to-go meal occasion, with more and more retailers offering hot options, premium item upgrades, and less traditional meal options. High-end sandwiches, for example, are seen as an emerging trend in foodservice, according to a 2023 report by Lumina Intelligence.
In terms of age groups, food-to-go is currently more likely to be purchased by an older consumer (aged 55 and above), which Forkes-Rees said was potentially due to their increased disposable income. “To tempt in younger demographics, retailers could target new product releases with food trends and flavours that may appeal to broader demographics and the younger generations,” she suggested. Nostalgic tastes, florals, and trending global cuisines were tipped to be the rising flavours for bakery this year in British Baker’s Flavour Trends 2024 report.
Meanwhile, health is expected to reemerge as a consumer priority. IGD 2024 data had 58% of food-to-go consumers claiming that having healthier options was important to them, and almost a fifth saying they visited more than one outlet if the first didn’t have a good range of healthy items available.
As such, bakers are recommended to ensure there is inclusion within ranges for consumers to be able to make healthy, informed decisions and give confidence in their food-to-go purchases.
The full report can be viewed on the AHDB website here.
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