Greggs’ estate growth is continuing at pace with 120 net new locations expected to open in 2026.
In a Q4 trading update published this morning (8 January), the food-to-go giant confirmed it had increased its retail footprint by 121 sites in 2025, resulting from 207 new shops with 50 relocations and 36 closures. This gave it a total of 2,739 stores trading as of 27 December 2025, 2,137 of which are company managed and 602 are franchises.
The estate expansion programme at Greggs is said to be developing its reach into new locations in under-penetrated catchments as well as relocating constrained existing shops to better sites, facilitating further growth in traditional trading areas.
Greggs CEO Roisin Currie noted that the company enters 2026 with a “strong pipeline of new opportunities” to make the company even more convenient for customers. This includes looking at locations where it is currently underrepresented, said Currie, such as travel locations, retail parks, and supermarkets. “That’s the key focus for us in terms of our current expansion plans,” she added during a press call this morning.
A trial of smaller-format stores first unveiled in the summer, which allows it to reach customers in prime locations that are constrained by space, has led to the opening of three Bitesize Greggs shops towards the end of the year. Currie said the reaction from customers to the new Bitesize stores has been ”exceptionally positive”.
More Bitesize shop openings are planned for the coming months, with Greggs expecting a similar rate and profile of overall estate growth in carefully chosen locations during 2026.
The trading update revealed Greggs had increased Q4 sales by 7.4% year-on-year, with like-for-like sales at company managed shops rising by 2.9%. Turnover in 2025 grew by £137m to hit £2.2bn, a 6.8% improvement on the previous year.
Currie commented that the business had made “good progress” in 2025, despite it being a challenging year where subdued consumer confidence impacted the food-to-go market. “Against this backdrop, I’m pleased that Greggs outperformed the wider market and increased its market share of visits,” added the CEO, referring to Circana data from the 12 months to September 2025.
Estate growth is being underpinned by investments in its supply chain capacity including the new logistics and manufacturing facility in Derby, which has a phased roll-out commencing in the middle of this year that will provide upstream picking of frozen products to six of its Radial Distribution Centres.
Greggs has also completed the initial build phase of its new chilled and ambient National Distribution Centre in Kettering, which remains on track to open in 2027. The business said it had now past the peak of its capital expenditure programme, with investments to reduce significantly this year and further again in 2027.
An ongoing focus on structural cost reduction delivered a further £13m in efficiencies in 2025, which Greggs said had allowed it to maintain attractive pricing by providing some mitigation to input cost increases. Cost reduction activity will continue to be a strategic focus this year, it added.
The retailer extended its value offering last September with a new £5 lunchtime meal deal having launched a three-part breakfast deal a couple months prior. Currie highlighted the difference between meal deals at Greggs compared to those at supermarkets was that it could offer hot products like chicken goujons and coffee.
As a lighter lunchtime option during the festive period, Greggs reintroduced its Festive Flatbread with an improved recipe. It also diversified its popular pizza range – which sold over 50m slices in 2025 – with a new Tandoori Chicken topping.
Currie accepted there was now a demand from customers for smaller portions, linked to the increase in GLP-1 weight loss medication usage. However, she pointed to a broader health trend in the UK where consumers were looking for more information on areas such as protein and fibre. ”We’re making sure that in the breadth of our range we can offer those choices to the them,” said the CEO, highlighting new menu additions such as The Egg Pot (12g of protein), protein drinks (26g of protein), and this week’s launch of Overnight Oats with Seeds & Dried Fruit (12g of protein).
Greggs anticipates reporting a full-year profit before tax outcome for FY25 in line with its previous expectations, before taking account of the one-off impact of accounting for £4.5m that relates to previous years’ sales tax costs. The preliminary results for 2025 are to be published on 3 March.
With cost inflation predicted to decrease this year, and with its store opening programme continuing to drive further sales growth, Greggs is expecting to deliver 2026 profits at a similar underlying level to last year with any year-on-year improvement contingent on a recovery in the consumer backdrop.
Stability and maturity
Reacting to the Q4 trading update, Robinhood UK lead analyst Dan Lane said: “These growth figures don’t scream of the Greggs of old but, on a struggling high street, today’s update offers a rare picture of stability.
“It also shows us how Greggs is moving from high-energy upstart to mature business growing through the expansion of its footprint rather than footfall. Opening four shops a week in 2025 is impressive only if these sites actually expand the brand and don’t cannibalise existing revenues. Sausage roll saturation with few meaningful levers to pull for the next wave of stellar growth is a prospect well grasped by now, and means Greggs is the most shorted company on the UK market.
“This year is more dependent on the inflationary backdrop than I’m sure the company is comfortable with. If price pressures ease and curious consumers are happy to stop by a shiny new Greggs, the expansion plans could well pay off. At the moment it’s genuinely unclear whether these vast expansion plans are the ultimate strategy or the undoing of a British staple.”
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