Meal deal maths: premiumisation, health, and all-day grazing change the equation

Forget Pythagoras’ theorem, everyone knows one of the most important equations in modern-day society is ‘sandwich + crisps + drink = lunch’.

Commonly known as the meal deal, it is a mechanic utilised by supermarkets and food to go operators to ramp up sales and demonstrate value to hungry consumers. But, unlike Pythagoras’ work which has stood for millennia, the meal deal equation is changing.

They currently account for 28.2% of promotions used in the food to go market, an increase of 0.9 percentage points on 2025 [Lumina Intelligence’s UK Food To Go Market Report].

“Meal deals remain central to the UK food‑to‑go market,” asserts Erwan Inizan, Northern Europe sales director at bakery supplier Bridor. “They are one of the clearest ways operators can signal value, especially on habitual occasions such as commuting, office days and college visits. They also help manage daypart demand and menu navigation: a well signposted meal deal lets time pressed customers make a quick decision without scrutinising the full menu.”

This is made even easier away from the aisles as communities of loyal meal deal fans take to TikTok, YouTube, and other online forums to share how to ‘hack’ the system to get the best value for money from the formula. Indeed, the #mealdealhack has drummed up millions of views on TikTok.

One of the simplest ways to save money in some retailers is to take advantage of loyalty prices on meal deals which saves shoppers 40p in Co-op and Tesco taking prices from £4.25 to £3.85. Tesco also has a loyalty price for Clubcard holders for its premium meal deal, which saves them 50p.

This is even more important as the price of several meal deals has increased lately including those at Tesco, Sainsbury’s, and Waitrose. As outlined in Lumina Intelligence’s UK Food To Go Market Report 2026, supermarkets are protecting volume while quietly lifting margins by holding standard meal deals below £5 and driving trade-up through premium tiers, upgrades, and add-ons. This, the report adds, creates a more dynamic, tiered price architecture.

The development of the premium meal deal partially reflects the continued innovation and premiumisation in food-to-go sandwiches, wraps, and salads which have previously sat outside of meal deals, as well as consumer desire for sides beyond the usual packet of crisps or chocolate bar.

“Consumers may be more price-conscious, but they are still willing to trade up and spend more when they feel the product delivers superiority in taste, ingredients or craftsmanship for a more considered moment to enjoy,” explains Holly Holt, brand manager, Lantmännen Unibake UK. “Premium meal deals encompassing artisan sandwiches, fibre and protein-enhanced products, indulgent sweet bakery items and barista coffees encourage consumers to increase spend.”

Asda became the latest retailer to introduce a premium meal deal in May this year. Priced at £5, the mains bring customers “artisan and deli-inspired sandwiches, generously filled wraps, hand-rolled sushi and premium salads”, according to Asda senior buying manager Tahnee Firth.

“We also know that customers are wanting to find best quality and treat themselves more, so premium meal deal meets this need,” Firth adds.

Highlights of the premium range include the Exceptional Prosciutto Cotto & Milano Salami Focaccia, layered with Italian deli meats on soft rosemary & sea salt focaccia with pesto mayo, and the bold new Exceptional Beef Birria Wrap, packed with smoky British beef, crunchy fresh veg and served with a birria dipping gravy. Meal deals are also available in Asda Express priced at £3.95 for the standard one and £5.25 for the premium one, but this includes hot food.

Despite the innovation, Firth notes that the core range remains “the heartland for our customers who still absolutely love our traditional meal deal sandwiches such as ham & cheese” but it has diversified to meet additional customer needs with more vegetarian and vegan offers alongside growing protein, light bites, and salad options for health-conscious consumers.

Waitrose food to go buyer Jack Hammersley also notes a growth in demand for healthier, high protein and high fibre lunch options with salad sales at the retailer up 31% compared to last year. “This is part of a wider customer trend of food lovers moving away from traditional pasta salads, and towards salads with leaf and grain bases, enabling them to pack in as many plant varieties as possible,” he says. However, customers are becoming “more experimental” when it comes to sandwich fillings, something Waitrose is happy to cater to with the likes of a Scotch Egg Sandwich among its recent seasonal NPD.

Sainsbury’s has taken things one step further, notes Gavin Rothwell at Future Food Insights, pointing to the fact the retailer has three tiers of meal deal in place at £3.95, £5.50, and £7. The most expensive option features the Kitchen Deli range of premium sandwiches, wraps, bagels, and salads as mains which are priced at £5.50 individually.

“Meal deals have evolved from a narrow ‘cheap lunch’ mechanic into a more strategic tool for curating complete occasions,” notes Bridor’s Inizan. “Rather than simply discounting a standard sandwich, operators are using deals to present choice, highlight on‑trend formats and trade customers up into higher quality, higher margin items while still communicating value.”

Inizan added that meal deals have “effectively become a framework within which operators can rotate innovation without losing the simplicity that consumers expect”.

Indeed, much of the innovation in this tier is focused on limited edition and seasonal products which tap into exciting flavours and formats for consumers.

“Flavour is becoming a key battleground, with consumers increasingly open to trying new and adventurous combinations,” notes Stéphanie Brillouet, marketing & innovation director, Délifrance. “Operators are elevating grab-and-go offerings by introducing globally inspired flavours and premium ingredients, from Vietnamese-style bánh mì and USA-inspired bagels to Mediterranean focaccia and French-inspired croque monsieur. Hot sandwiches, wraps, and paninis are also being reinvented through international influences, with Korean BBQ fillings, Middle Eastern shawarma-style flatbreads and Italian-style paninis bringing variety and discovery to everyday occasions.”

A peek at Co-op’s top 10 premium mains for 2025, as seen in its The Way We Lunch Report 2026, confirms this with a New York Deli Sandwich, Hot Honey Ham Hock Sandwich, American Cheeseburger Wrap, and Indian Gunpowder Chicken Wrap making the list. Globally-inspired flavours have continued to be rolled out at the convenience retailer with a Korean Chicken Sando with Gochujang Aioli, Beef Burrito Wrap with Birria Dip, and Southern Fried Chicken & Pickle Sub Roll amongst the latest new additions to the chillers.

Out of home and on the go

While traditionally seen in supermarket food to go, meal deals are expanding into the out of home market with coffee shops, food-to-go specialists, and even craft bakeries getting in on the action.

Wenzel’s the Bakers, which has 100-plus shops in London and surrounding areas, has 14 meal deals listed on its website, although many are the same price with the type of main switched. For example, the baguette, focaccia, toastie, and panini meal deals are all £6.95 and offer shoppers the titular item plus a drink and snack. Notably, the drinks include hot and cold beverages, such as pink lemonade, coffee, and frappes (although the latter has a £1 upcharge) while the snacks include crisps and bakery items such as a sugar ring doughnut, Belgian bun, and sausage roll.

It’s a tactic also utilised by the larger retailers with Co-op offering in-store bakery items, like croissants, cinnamon swirls, and brownies, as side options.

London food-to-go specialist Pure, meanwhile, “does a great job in offering a different take on the meal deal”, says Rothwell at consultancy Future Food Insights. Instead of conforming to the standard meal + snack + drink combination, he says, the London-based business offers ‘Sidekicks’ which allow consumers the option to add a snack to the main at a reduced price of £2.99. These Sidekicks include Bircher muesli, yoghurts, smoothies, and soups.

“What’s really interesting here is that you can add on up to three sidekicks, encouraging higher spend and buy-in to the broader range,” Rothwell adds.

There are similar tactics seen at Pret which began trialling breakfast and lunch meal deals last year. The food-to-go retailer has been wary about sharing details of the trial, with CEO Pano Christou at the time of launch admitting that it was “going to test out the price points”. However, a post on the firm’s Facebook page from 4 March revealed the Everyday Meal Deal was £6. It also has a Pick Your Pair offering which allows shoppers to choose two items – either a half baguette or flatbread, side soup, side salad, or protein pots – for £4.99.

These types of options can offer better value for money and, in some cases, allow consumers to meet several food & drink needs throughout the day from a single visit.

It’s because some consumers are doing what Holly Holt at Lantmännen Unibake UK describes as “all day grazing”. Particularly relevant for forecourts and motorway service stations where, Holt notes, the “all-day meal deal platform has taken the meal deal beyond a lunchtime proposition”.

Savoury bakery products lend themselves well to the all-day eating proposition, she adds, and are increasingly being included in the offering either as a side or main. Savoury pastry specialist Higgidy created two-packs of some of its most popular rolls as a side option, while Samworth Brothers stablemate Ginsters also developed 100g pastry Pockets which feature as sides in meal deals.

“Snacking offers one of the largest usage occasion opportunities, and Ginsters are seeing great opportunities in this space, both as a key element of meal deals and on-the-go snacking,” says Sarah Babb, Ginsters marketing director. Launched in April 2025, Ginsters Pockets have achieved “significant cut through in meal deals and front of store”.

This can be seen in Co-op’s ‘The Way We Lunch Report 2026’ which reveals the top 10 food to go snacks sold in 2025. While chicken products took the top three spots suggesting a focus on protein for many consumers, Ginsters products held the fourth, fifth, and sixth spots (see below).

Ginsters isn’t the only one to target the all-day eating occasion with Lumina Intelligence noting an uplift in the share of new products developed for it. Sixty-six per cent of NPD fitted into the all-day category in Q1 2026 vs 52% in Q1 2025. Lunch, notably, dropped from 30% to 19%, while breakfast remained static with 10% of NPD designed specifically for the morning meal.

Coffee + pastry = breakfast

Diversification can be seen in the mechanic, but also the time of day the combo is targeting.

Breakfast offers a good example of both, according to Liam Stringfellow, brand marketing manager at Finsbury Food Group. “Rather than simply recreating the lunchtime meal deal format, the opportunity is to build offers around products that are portable, satisfying and suited to the morning routine, such as a coffee and a filled muffin, pastry or bacon roll,” Stringfellow explains.

While the format of a coffee and pastry, or coffee and bacon roll for a fixed price are commonplace in the out of home market, operators face stiff competition to lure in consumers.

For example, QSR Leon serves up a breakfast meal deal which offers shoppers a sourdough filled muffin, porridge, or hot egg pot plus a coffee for £4.99. Fast food chain McDonald’s, which lost the number one spot in share of food to go breakfasts to Greggs in 2024, has several options for the cost-conscious but hungry consumer in the morning starting from £2.99 for a Sausage Sandwich or a Saver Bacon Roll with a selected drink. Costa, meanwhile, serves up a breakfast offer from £7.49 before 11am which includes a breakfast bap, coffee, and 250ml Innocent orange or apple juice.

“Offering customers meaningful value through breakfast bundles encourages trade up from a coffee-only morning purchase, raising transaction value and driving trial of a wider variety of products across multiple categories,” says Lantmännen’s Holt. “This in turn can lead to repeat purchases outside of the promotion.”

Greggs has taken this one step further with a deal for every part of the day from breakfast to lunch, a sweet or savoury afternoon snack, or late-night pick-me-up.

Rothwell at Future Food Insights expects to see an increased focus on breakfast meal deals. “We’re seeing more focus on breakfast fixturing, and there are opportunities to develop this into a meal deal approach,” he explains, but warns operators to ensure it “doesn’t detract from or confuse the potency and clarity of the main lunchtime-oriented meal deal”.

As such, Rothwell notes that “clarity and simplicity of communication is critical around what’s included and what is excluded”, particularly for operators looking to develop more in this space, and is key to avoid confusion and disappointment at the fixture and till.

So, while a² + b² = c² still holds true, does sandwich + crisps + drink = lunch? Yes, but as the market evolves to meet changing consumer needs at reasonable price points there are other equations at play such as ‘coffee + pastry = breakfast’ and even ‘sandwich + snack + snack = all day dining’.