Ice cream, cold lager, and strawberries & cream – just some of the food and drink items that are front of mind during hotter months. Loaded doughnuts, toast, and hot pasties not so much.
But with a heatwave sweeping across the nation, one which has forced some bakeries to shut early to escape the worst of its impact, it begs the question: how does hot weather affect bakery sales?
The good news is shoppers seem more willing to spend on food & drink when the sun shines. Total till sales at UK supermarkets rose 4.6% in the four weeks ending 13 June [NIQ data]. This was primarily driven by the heatwave at the end of May when sales increased 6.3% [two weeks ending 30 May]. Even better was the fact that unit growth rose by 2.5% and spend per visit was up 2.3% in that fortnight.
This slowed as the cooler wetter weather reared its head with shoppers spending £490m less between 1 and 13 June compared to the previous fortnight.
Greggs has sometimes found the opposite to be true. Its preliminary results for 2025 revealed a drop in profits partially attributed to challenging market conditions but also compounded by the spell of particularly hot weather last summer which ‘had a material impact on footfall and consumer behaviour’.
“Weather can have a significant impact on how, where and when consumers buy bakery,” explains Dan Jones, marketing manager at British Bakels. “Warmer days tend to shift eating behaviour towards lighter, fresher and more portable options, as well as products suited to outdoor occasions such as picnics, barbecues, festivals and days out.”
Thankfully, there’s a baked good for almost every occasion meaning the category still has an important role to play at these occasions. Burger buns, flatbreads, and more come to the fore as do sausage rolls, quiche, and any other bakery product deemed part of the ‘picky bits’ world.
Notably, summer social occasions such as barbecues and picnics, are “no longer limited to weekends or major gatherings”, according to Rachel Wells, commercial director at St Pierre Groupe which owns brioche brand St Pierre. “Spontaneous and midweek occasions are growing in importance, with special or treat-led midweek dinners up 10% year on year,” she adds.
Spontaneity was also seen in the NIQ data with rapid delivery seeing its highest share of online sales of the year to date at 12.8% on the hottest day of the year so far (Tuesday 26 May).
While the current heatwave is anticipated to end in the next few days, there is more sunshine on the horizon which brings with it the promise of good sales.
“The second heatwave of the year will likely see another boost to sales into July, conveniently coinciding with the summer of sport,” notes Mike Watkins, head of retailer and business insight at NielsenIQ. “We still expect lower demand into August when the holiday season disrupts spending.”
Indeed, the FIFA World Cup is leading the charge, but Wimbledon also presents an opportunity.
“We expect to see more globally inspired formats and flavour references with the World Cup during summer and this can come through seasonal limited-edition ranges – from cookies to doughnuts to cakes and sandwiches, different flavours can be incorporated across the board,” says Ryan Gaskin, group leader traditional trade, from supplier CSM Ingredients.
Read: Sun, scrolling, and sweet treats – top bakery trends for summer 2026
“Limited editions create a sense of urgency and are hugely popular with customers, and introducing them over the summer months is the perfect time showcase new products and flavours.”
This can be seen in abundance across the industry with summer NPD galore from M&S’ Dunked N’ Loaded Doughnuts to Cooplands’ spice-infused summer range made in collaboration with Ainsley Harriott and even Soccer Buns from supplier Bridor.
Some are even pairing classic pastries with ice cream for the ultimate summer treat. French bakery Paul is using its signature croissants as a base for its soft serve ice cream in vanilla, chocolate or salted caramel. Oxfordshire-based Imma the Bakery has also ventured into ice cream and is also serving up a variety of flavours made in-house in its croissants.
While some are embracing the hot weather, as the recent closures have proved, higher temperatures also bring operational challenges.
“Chocolate-heavy or cream-filled products may need more careful consideration around handling, storage and merchandising,” explains Jones from British Bakels. “This is where formats such as muffins, fruit tarts, glazed doughnuts, traybakes and ambient-friendly fruit bakery can offer strong summer appeal while remaining practical for bakers and retailers.”
No comments yet